Play blackjack in Vegas. The house edge is 0.28% with a standard deviation of 1.15. The dealer loses about 49% of all hands played.
That’s a lot of losses. Evidenced by the fact that casinos still have blackjack tables, it’s okay to lose 49% of the time. It helps that losses are taken quickly. The dealer never doubles down.
I’m wrong a lot of the time too. All humans are. This is acceptable as long as errors are acknowledged quickly.
The timing is more critical than the error. When you drag out a loss, you increase the amount of time spent being wrong. Repeatedly doubling down on a losing hand is a good way to extend a 49% loss record into a 100% loss record.
Microsoft could argue that it would eventually be right about the tablet computer back in 2001, but if Steve Ballmer had kept placing bets on MS Tablet for the next 9 years, I doubt shareholders would have kept him around and called him a visionary.
When in doubt, better to leave a sinking ship too soon than too late. If the ship rights itself and leaves you behind, wait for the next one to come along.
Or learn to swim. You don’t drown by falling in water, you drown by staying there.